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FILE PICTURE: Heavy rain is likely to continue across parts of South India, while global weather models point to possible renewed storm development over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Google DeepMind assigns a 53 per cent chance to a storm that could rank among the three strongest North Indian Ocean systems in 2026. | Photo Credit: ISABEL INFANTES
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely to continue over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal for another four days, even as the Bay of Bengal shows signs of renewed tropical storm/cyclone activity, with the Arabian Sea also likely to spring into action.
Forecasts from global models and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggest that both basins could see activity build to another peak next week, keeping the South Peninsula on its toes. IMD’s short-to medium-range outlook, extending through Wednesday, November 18, points to a prolonged spell of rain over parts of the South Peninsula. Keralam and Mahe are expected to receive isolated heavy rain for two more days, covering Saturday and Sunday. Strong surface winds are likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam for three days.
The rain belt is expected to remain fairly expansive. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam and Rayalaseema for six days from Saturday. Keralam and Mahe, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and South Interior Karnataka are likely to see similar conditions for four days from Monday. Coastal Karnataka could receive isolated to scattered rain on Saturday and Sunday, while Telangana is in line for rain on Saturday.
Thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds could add to the unsettled weather. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal are likely to see these conditions for four days; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam for three days; and Keralam and Mahe and Lakshadweep for two days. Isolated thunderstorms and lightning are also forecast over Keralam and Mahe on Monday and Tuesday.
While IMD has not ruled out the formation of a depression or cyclone in either the Bay or the Arabian Sea, the US Climate Prediction Center sees sufficient model support to assign a 20-40 per cent probability to the development of a strong system over the Bay. Google DeepMind’s storm outlook is even more striking. It sees a 53 per cent chance of a storm developing that could rank among the three strongest systems over the North Indian Ocean (comprising the Bay and Arabian Sea) in 2026.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is closely monitoring three separate areas of potential storm development across the two basins. These include the south-east and south-west, in the vicinity of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands; the Lakshadweep Sea, west of Sri Lanka and south-south-east of Kerala; and the south-west Arabian Sea, just west of the Lakshadweep Islands.
There are already some early signs of atmospheric organisation. IMD has identified an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the south-east Arabian Sea, off the Kerala coast, close to one of the areas where ECMWF sees potential for further development. The weather office has also flagged the possibility of another circulation taking shape over the south-east Bay and adjoining Andaman Sea around Wednesday next.
Adding to the favourable mix is an active pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), currently positioned over the Bay. This eastward-moving band of tropical atmospheric activity can provide a significant boost to convection and cyclogenesis. Its presence is considered favourable for the formation of depressions over both the Bay and the Arabian Sea during the two weeks ending November 18.
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