The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 22, 2026.
Sri Lanka has a population of approximately 21.78 million and a diverse economy in which agriculture, fisheries, services, manufacturing, tourism, and remittances all contribute to household livelihoods. The country is divided into three major agro-ecological zones: the wet zone, the intermediate zone, and the dry zone, which determine the island’s agricultural systems (Figure 1). The country receives two monsoons annually: the southwest monsoon from May to September, which originates over the Indian Ocean, and the northeast monsoon from December to February, which originates from the Bay of Bengal.
Paddy cultivation is a predominant source of income in Sri Lanka, with crop production organized around two principal cultivation seasons, maha and yala . The maha season, harvested between February and March, accounts for approximately 60-65 percent of annual paddy, while the yala season, harvested between July and September, contributes the remaining 35-40 percent. Irrigated paddy systems in the dry zone generate most marketable rice surpluses, while mixed cropping systems in the intermediate zone and plantation systems in the wet zone support household income through crop sales and wage employment. While paddy is the country's key staple food crop, maize, pulses, vegetables, fruits, spices, tea, rubber, coconut, and other cash crops provide important sources of income and employment. While households rely on own-produced food for consumption in many rural areas, most households obtain food through market purchases, making food security outcomes highly sensitive to food prices, labor income, and purchasing power.
The fisheries sector contributes significantly to food security. Marine, lagoon, and inland fisheries, as well as fish processing and trade, are a critical source of income for coastal households. Fish is also the primary source of animal protein for much of the population. Seasonal monsoon conditions influence fishing activities and drive fluctuations in fish production, prices, and incomes. The southwest monsoon seasonally constrains fishing access along western and southern coastal areas, while the northeast monsoon seasonally affects fishing in northern and eastern coastal areas.
Sri Lanka is highly exposed to weather hazards, particularly droughts, floods, landslides, and cyclones. The dry zone is particularly vulnerable to dry spells and irrigation water shortages, while the wet and intermediate zones frequently experience flooding and landslides associated with monsoonal and inter-monsoonal rainfall. Although most weather-related shocks are localized, recurrent or larger weather shocks, including Cyclone Ditwah in late 2025, affect agricultural production, fisheries, infrastructure, income, and resilience, particularly among poor farming and fishing households.
Sri Lanka is still recovering from the severe 2022-2023 economic crisis, when shortages of foreign exchange, fuel, fertilizer, food, and other essential imports contributed to sharp increases in inflation, reduced agricultural production, declining real incomes, and increased reliance on debt and negative coping strategies. Since then, economic conditions have improved : real GDP growth was estimated at 5.0 percent in 2025 , inflation has moderated, tourism earnings are rebounding, and foreign exchange reserves are increasing. However, food and non-food prices remain high, production costs are elevated, and many households continue to face debt repayment obligations incurred during the crisis. Many households have not fully recovered from the erosion of livelihoods, assets, and purchasing capacity, resulting in low resilience to future weather and economic shocks. According to the World Bank , approximately one-quarter of Sri Lanka's population lived below the national poverty line in 2024, reflecting the lasting crisis impacts.
The government offers a social safety net program to support impoverished households. The Aswesuma is Sri Lanka's primary poverty-targeted social assistance program, introduced under the Welfare Benefits Board. It provides tiered monthly cash transfers to households classified as extremely poor, poor, vulnerable, or transitional, with benefit levels determined by household vulnerability and socioeconomic status, ranging from 5,000-17,500 LKR. The program supports approximately 2.4 million (10 percent) low-income households countrywide. Other forms of government support include school feeding initiatives, nutrition interventions, vulnerability allowance, and disaster response assistance.
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Rainfall: The start of the May-September southwest monsoon has been above average, reaching 50 to 100 percent above normal in localized southwest coastal and central areas. The above-average rainfall improved reservoir storage, irrigation water availability, and soil moisture conditions, supporting the start of yala cultivation and plantation crop production.
Localized flooding and landslides: Heavy intermonsoon and southwest monsoon rainfall from March-May 2026 triggered localized flooding, flash floods, and landslides across parts of the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Southern, and Uva provinces. The Disaster Management Centre (DMC) issued multiple flood and landslide warnings in May , with temporary displacement, minor infrastructure damage, disruptions to local transport networks, and localized crop losses. These localized weather shocks also temporarily disrupted livelihood activities, market access, and labor opportunities for affected households.
Crop production: The 2025/26 maha season (which ended in March) generally benefited from favorable rainfall and adequate irrigation water availability across major producing districts. However, crop production outcomes were mixed due to localized damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah, heavy rainfall, and flooding in several areas. According to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka , paddy production for the 2025/26 maha season is estimated at 2.64 million metric tons, approximately 3.7 percent below the previous maha season. Despite the localized losses, domestic rice availability remains above levels observed during the 2022 economic crisis and continues to support ample domestic supply.
Macroeconomic conditions: Although Sri Lanka's macroeconomic situation has improved substantially compared to the 2022 economic crisis, headline inflation increased from 2.2 percent in March to 5.5 percent in May , while non-food inflation accelerated to 7.8 percent. The increase was partly driven by rising energy, transport, and other non-food costs following fuel price increases associated with the Middle East escalation. Additionally, the LKR depreciated approximately 3.1 percent against the USD between April and May 2026 and was nearly 10 percent weaker than a year ago, increasing the cost of imported agricultural inputs, fuel, and food commodities. Fuel prices increased approximately 30-46 percent from March to May following the Middle East escalation and associated increases in global oil prices. Diesel prices increased by 41 percent between March and mid-May 2026, contributing to higher transportation, production, and service costs throughout the economy.
Source: FEWS NET using Department of Census and Statistics – Sri Lanka data
Food prices: Improved domestic food availability following the 2025/26 maha harvest and stable import flows have supported prices near last year’s, but well above pre-2022 economic crisis levels (Figure 2). In Colombo, nadu rice prices were 229 LKR/kilogram (kg) in May 2026, similar to last year and 15 percent above the five-year average, which remains substantially elevated due to the 2022 economic crisis. However, nadu rice prices are approximately 94 percent above pre-economic crisis levels (May 2021). Wheat flour prices averaged 190 LKR/kg in Colombo in May, marginally higher than last year and slightly lower than the five-year average, but 105 percent above May 2021. Similarly, dhal (red lentil) prices averaged 350 LKR/kg , also marginally higher than last year and 7 percent lower than the five-year average, but 64 percent above May 2021. Prices remain elevated due to the lingering effects of the 2022 economic crisis, currency depreciation, higher transportation costs, and elevated import and production costs.
Fishing: Fishing livelihoods are facing pressure from elevated operational costs and seasonal access constraints in June. In response to rising fuel costs linked to global energy market disruptions, the government introduced a fuel support program in April 2026, providing an additional 50 LKR/liter subsidy for approximately 37,500 single-day fishing vessels and a 150,000 LKR allowance for 5,500 multi-day vessels. However, fuel costs remain a significant constraint on profitability in the sector. Additionally, seasonally rough sea conditions associated with the southwest monsoon are also restricting fishing days, particularly along the western and southern coasts, reducing income from small-scale fishing.
No large-scale emergency food assistance program is currently operating in Sri Lanka. Humanitarian assistance remains limited and localized, primarily targeting households affected by recent weather-related disasters. Following Cyclone Ditwah, WFP supported 10,616 households with vouchers worth 20,400 LKR (65 USD) as part of the Emergency Food Assistance Program in early 2026.
In the wet zone (plantation areas) and urban and peri-urban districts in the southwest, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing. Plantation households in the wet zone remain highly dependent on low-wage labor from tea, rubber, and estate-related activities, with limited own food production and minimal alternative labor opportunities in the area. With low wages, high levels of debt, market-dependency, and high food expenditure, households are facing limited purchasing capacity, straining their access to essential non-food items. Similarly, in urban and peri-urban areas, while labor demand and employment opportunities have improved compared to the peak of the 2022 economic crisis, wage increases have not kept pace with elevated food prices, transport costs, utility expenditures, and debt repayment commitments. Facing low daily incomes and unaffordable food prices, poor households are resorting to consumption-based coping strategies, such as reducing meal size and frequency, as well as livelihood coping strategies, including reducing expenditure on essential non-food items. Some very poor households, particularly highly indebted estate workers, female-headed households, elderly households with limited income sources, recent cyclone Ditwah-affected households, and poor urban casual laborers with unstable employment are likely relying on livelihood coping strategies associated with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, such as selling productive assets and taking on unsustainably high levels of debt.
In western and northern coastal fishing areas , Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing. Elevated operational costs, particularly for fuel, transport, gear maintenance, and fishing inputs are limiting the profitability of fishing and constraining household incomes. Additionally, rough seas associated with the southwest monsoon are seasonally limiting fishing activities, particularly on the west coast, further reducing access to incomes. Fishing households are highly market-dependent; however, they have limited savings and are highly vulnerable to the elevated staple food prices, constraining household purchasing capacity. As a result, many households are able to meet minimum food needs while facing challenges covering essential non-food expenses. Households are increasingly relying on borrowing from informal lenders and fish traders and reducing expenditure on healthcare, education, and other essential non-food needs.
In the intermediate zone and most of the dry zone , Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are ongoing. Food availability remains adequate following recent broadly favorable 2025/2026 maha paddy and maize harvests, which improved household food stocks and income from crop sales. Meanwhile, ongoing yala cultivation is supporting seasonal agricultural labor opportunities. In the intermediate zone, diversified income sources, such as paddy cultivation, cash crops, home-garden production, livestock rearing, self-employment, and wage labor, continue to support adequate household purchasing power. Across both zones, although production costs, household debt levels, and living expenses remain elevated, most poor households are able to meet both their food and essential non-food needs. Households in some areas affected by weather-related crop losses, such as Cyclone Ditwah in late 2025, have higher debt burdens and have faced difficulty recovering their livelihoods, and are likely facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
In the wet zone (plantation areas) and urban and peri-urban districts , Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through January. Poor households in plantation areas will remain highly dependent on wage labor from tea, rubber, coconut, export agricultural crops, and estate-related activities, while poor urban and peri-urban households will continue to depend on casual labor, self-employment, construction, transport, and service-sector employment. While labor opportunities are expected to remain generally stable, with seasonal increases linked to tourism, trade, and festive demand from December to January, daily wage growth is unlikely to keep pace with elevated living costs. Elevated food prices, transportation costs, utility expenditures, housing expenses, and household debt are expected to continue constraining household purchasing capacity. Consequently, many poor households are expected to continue meeting minimum food requirements while unable to cover essential non-food expenditures, relying on coping strategies, such as reducing expenditure on healthcare and education, increasing borrowing, and postponing livelihood investments and household maintenance, sustaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January. A small pocket of very poor households will likely continue to face substantial difficulty accessing food and income, sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January.
Among western and northern coastal fishing households , Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will likely continue through January 2027. Elevated fuel prices, transportation costs, and fishing input expenses are expected to continue constraining fishing profitability. Seasonally rough sea conditions associated with the southwest monsoon from June to September and the northeast monsoon from December to February are expected to periodically reduce fishing days, reducing income-earning opportunities. While government support measures and stable fish demand will provide some support and sustain minimally adequate access to food, poor fishing households are expected to remain unable to fully meet essential non-food needs.
In the dry zone , Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist in both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems through September 2026. Most households will continue to benefit from food stocks from the 2025/26 maha harvest, and income from ongoing yala cultivation activities, including seasonal yala agricultural labor opportunities, supported by the favorable cropping conditions and irrigated water access. Although food prices, cultivation costs, and household debt remain elevated and despite some localized below-average rainfall, particularly in rainfed paddy and chena areas, most poor households are expected to meet food and essential non-food needs but face increasing difficulty meeting essential non-food expenditures, particularly as market dependence increases in September.
Between October 2026 and January 2027, which corresponds to the lean season preceding the 2026/27 maha harvest, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to emerge across both irrigated and rainfed dry zone agricultural areas. The seasonal depletion of household food stocks, increased market dependence, seasonal weather shocks, such as flooding and landslides, elevated food prices, and continued high production costs are expected to constrain purchasing power and food access among poor households. Although land preparation and planting activities associated with the start of the 2026/2027 maha season will provide some seasonal labor opportunities, these income sources are not expected to fully offset rising expenditures and debt repayment obligations. However, in January, with the start of the maha harvest, income and food access are expected to increase, and outcomes are likely to improve back to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in both rainfed and irrigated cropping areas of the dry zone. Acute malnutrition is expected to broadly remain stable through the projection period.
In the intermediate zone , Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027. Income from agricultural production, cash crops, and labor opportunities is expected to remain broadly stable, while food availability will be supported by year-round harvests and continued market access. Although food prices and production costs are expected to remain elevated, diversified income sources and relatively stronger purchasing power are expected to enable most households to meet both food and non-food needs.
Agro-ecological zones of Sri Lanka
Natural Resource Management Center, Department of Agriculture
Climatic zone, agro-ecological zone, land use, annual rainfall, crop calendar, impact on agriculture and livestock
WFP Sri Lanka and Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research and Training Institute (HARTI) Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources
Typical sources of food and income by livelihood zone, seasonal labor, agriculture production trends
Timing of agricultural activities, labor demand, income, and seasonal food access patterns
Paddy cultivation and Irrigated water availability
Department of Agriculture and Department of Irrigation
Food availability, agriculture production prospects, labor demand
Department of Census and Statistics, and Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Population (national and district), poverty
Nutrition Indicators, access to healthcare, challenges
Consumer Price Inflation, currency exchange rates
Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Department of Census and Statistics
Macroeconomic conditions impacting financial access to food
Department of Census and Statistics
Price trends and impacts on household financial access to food
Crop production estimates and harvest conditions; GIEWS Updates
Department of Census and Statistics ; Crop Monitor for early warning ; FAO Sri Lanka
Production statistics and early warning harvest conditions informing early warning on food availability
Hazards and shocks and how they impact food access and availability
Agroclimatology monitoring and forecasting
USGS, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and Climate Hazards Center
Weather anomalies, as well as rainfall, groundwater, and cropping conditions, impacting food availability
Fuel prices impacting production costs and food prices
Government safety net program (Aswesuma) data
Welfare Benefits Board of Sri Lanka
Beneficiaries of national safety net programming
Humanitarian response to Cyclone Ditwah and Humanitarian Priority Plan – Cyclone Ditwah Sri Lanka
Multi-sectoral humanitarian priorities and response to Cyclone Ditwah
Data In Emergencies (DIEM) - Cyclone Ditwah
Food security impact assessment of Cyclone Ditwah
Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) and Joint Rapid Need Assessment (JRNA) – Cyclone Ditwah
World Bank , DMC Sri Lanka , and Inter-Agency Joint Rapid Needs Assessment Phase-1 and Phase-II
Sectoral distribution of damage and roadmap for recovery and reconstruction, Rapid need assessment findings
Sri Lanka: Remote Household Food Security Survey
Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future.
FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.
While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.
Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: More severe or prolonged northeast monsoon rainfall, tropical cyclone activity, or prolonged rough sea conditions would likely result in more widespread flooding, landslides, crop damage, population displacement, damage to housing and infrastructure, disruptions to transportation networks, and reduced access to livelihood opportunities and markets. Low-lying areas, including urban and peri-urban areas, would be at the highest risk of severe flooding and weather damage, with landslides expected in the central highlands. In agricultural areas, crop losses and reduced labor opportunities would likely lower household income and food access. In coastal fishing areas, prolonged rough sea conditions could substantially reduce the number of fishing days, fish catch volumes, and household income. Very poor households would likely increase reliance on negative coping strategies, including increased borrowing, reduction of essential expenditures, and depletion of productive assets. This would likely lead to an expansion of households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3); though it is unlikely Crisis (IPC Phase 3) households will reach the 20 percent threshold for an area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) classification.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Sri Lanka Food Security Outlook June 2026 - January 2027: Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes expected in Sri Lanka through January 2027, 2026.
To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here .
The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Department of State or the U.S. Government.
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