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NDC Energy Commitments Tracker - E3G

Lanka Hit News • Sep 10, 2025 · 1y ago • 9 min read
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NDC Energy Commitments Tracker E3G

All countries are due to submit updated or new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025, setting out their climate plan and commitments to 2035. These NDCs are a key test of whether governments are responding to the Global Stocktake (GST-1) agreed at COP28 in Dubai, and, in particular, what domestic policy commitments they are making to deliver on the global energy transition goals set out in Paragraph 28.

This interactive tool monitors how countries’ new or enhanced NDCs reflect the energy transition outcomes agreed in Paragraph 28 of the COP28 Global Stocktake.

These outcomes include tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, phasing down coal power, transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

This tracker was last updated at 18:00 GMT on 22 October 2026.

Energy transition commitments are broken down into metrics: clean energy deployment, energy efficiency targets, no new coal, phase down of unabated coal power, pathways to wind down oil and gas production, reducing fossil fuels’ share of electricity, and phasing out inefficient subsidies. The tracker also highlights where commitments are conditional on international finance or support. Hover over each metric to read the relevant language in the NDC.

To capture progress, the tracker assesses whether each NDC:

It also identifies whether these energy-related targets are conditional on international finance or capacity-building support – hover over the target to see conditionality and the relevant NDC quote.

This tracker offers a quick overview of how far NDCs are laying out concrete plans to deliver on the COP28 energy package – and where ambition needs to be raised ahead of COP30 in Belém. The full methodology can be found here .

97% of countries have included some form of policy commitment in their updated NDC to reach at least one of the energy outcomes tracked here – on tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, and fossil fuel phaseout.

The vast majority of new NDC submissions include mentions of increasing the deployment of renewable energy (93%, 123/132) and improving energy efficiency (91%, 124/137). 72% (95/132) of NDCs give a quantified target for renewables deployment. Meanwhile 46% (63/137) have included quantified energy efficiency improvements.

77% of new climate plans (105/137) also include commitments to reduce the share of fossil fuels in their electricity mix. Of the NDCs submitted by countries with coal in their electricity mix, more than half (51%) mention plans to phase down unabated coal power. However, specific language on winding down the production of oil and fossil gas is lacking in almost all NDCs.

No countries have presented a plan to comprehensively meet the tracked energy goals. This suggests that countries are seeing the clear benefits of moving towards clean energy and towards clean power systems, but are not taking all the necessary steps to plan for a corresponding shift away from fossil fuels in line with the GST commitment.

Click to expand and read E3G’s analysis, drawn from the NDC Energy Commitments Tracker, on how countries’ NDCs are responding to that commitments made in the response to the Global Stocktake made at COP28:

The vast majority of countries are including renewable energy build-out in national planning : 93% (123/132) of NDCs mention plans to increase renewable energy capacity, either by setting quantified targets, or mentions without specific targets or timeframes.

A large majority have set quantified targets: 72% (95/132) of the NDCs submitted to date either quantify their 2035 renewable energy goal, or, in the case of Bhutan, Iceland, Lesotho and Uruguay, already have such a high penetration of renewables in their power mix that an increase in ambition is not possible. The Holy See and Vatican City is excluded as “the State has neither fossil fuel sources nor energy production plants, with the exception of a negligible amount of energy produced from renewable sources.”

Nigeria’s NDC targets a 50% renewable energy share in the generation mix by 2030, though this includes 17,000MW of gas, a non-renewable fossil fuel.

Nine countries – Bolivia, Georgia, Japan, Mongolia, Norway, Panama, Serbia, Tunisia, and Zambia – do not mention increasing renewable energy deployment at all in their NDCs. Norway directs readers to their National Inventory Document (NID), submitted in March 2025, which states that: “Norway produces electricity mainly from hydropower and therefore, emissions from electricity production are small compared to most other countries.”

Almost all countries – 91% (124/137) – mention improving energy efficiency in their NDC. 61 submissions provide a quantified target. 63 mention energy efficiency reference making improvements without providing any detail. This shows that countries are thinking about energy efficiency improvements, but are not yet making sufficient targets and plans to meet the GST goal of doubling improvements to energy efficiency by 2030.

Energy efficiency references feature on both the supply and demand side. However, references are heavily weighted towards demand-side measures, with less attention to the supply side, where some of the largest and most cost-effective efficiency gains can be achieved. This imbalance suggests an opportunity for countries to strengthen their national energy planning by placing greater emphasis on improving efficiency in energy supply systems.

Of the 61 countries that provide a quantified target for their energy efficiency goals, 56 explicitly reference appliance efficiency and other demand-side measures (41 % of all newly submitted NDCs) . Examples include :

This matches earlier analysis from CLASP , which celebrates the higher rate of countries including appliance efficiency in their NDCs in this submission cycle, but states that actionable targets are still needed to maximise impact.

30 countries explicitly refer to improving supply-side efficiency , such as modernising the grid and reducing transmission or generation losses (22% of all newly submitted NDCs). Examples include:

81% of countries that have submitted new NDCs (110/137 countries) either have no coal in their energy mix, or reference intentions to phase down unabated coal power.

Of the 55 countries still using coal, half (51%, 28/55) mention plans to phase down unabated coal power , with 12 countries providing a timeline for this effort. 13/53 countries (25% of coal-using countries) include a commitment to stop permitting and building new coal. These are Australia, Cambodia, Canada, Colombia, the European Union, Malaysia, Mauritius, Morocco, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Ukraine and the UK.

84 of the 137 countries that have submitted NDCs so far do not have coal-fired power plants.

Of the 12 countries who have set quantified targets to phase down coal, only four are not members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA): Australia, Cambodia, Malaysia and Nepal.

There are nine PPCA members that have coal in their electricity mix, but have not included a quantified target or timeline to phase down its use in their power sector in their new NDCs: Colombia, Mexico, Montenegro, New Zealand, Norway, Panama, Switzerland, UAE, the US.

77% of NDC submissions (105/132, not counting countries who have little to no fossils in their power mix already) mention some form of intent to transition away from fossil fuels in the power mix overall (across coal, oil and gas). 53% (70/132) provide a quantified target or timeline for doing so.

Bhutan, Ethiopia, Iceland, Lesotho and Uruguay are excluded from this analysis as they already have a high penetration of renewables in their electricity mix. The Holy See is also excluded as “the State has neither fossil fuel sources nor energy production plants, with the exception of a negligible amount of energy produced from renewable sources.” Therefore the 79% figure is calculated as 88/111 NDCs.

No country has provided a quantified target for winding down oil and gas production. Of the NDCs submitted in this cycle, 72 produce oil or fossil gas.

Of these, only four– Canada, Colombia, Timor Leste and the UK – included a mention of reducing oil and gas production:

NDCs also reflect more broadly how countries are considering their transitions away from fossil fuels. A small but growing set of NDCs explicitly reference economic transition alongside energy targets. For example, Barbados acknowledges the fiscal risks of shifting away from imported fossil fuels; the UAE links its climate goals to long-term economic diversification beyond oil and cites the COP28 call to “transition away from fossil fuels”; and Canada and the UK highlight worker re-skilling and jobs legislation as part of managed economic transitions. Others, including Moldova and the Maldives, reference economic diversification plans, though these are not yet the same as a comprehensive transition strategy to reduce dependence on oil and gas.

Very few countries reference fossil fuel subsidies. Only 15 newly submitted NDCs are from countries with no inefficient fossil fuel subsides. Of the remaining countries with subsidies, 100 (82%) fail to mention subsidy reform in their NDC , despite its inclusion in Paragraph 28 of the GST text.

22 countries mention fossil fuel subsidies , but do not include a timeline for their phase out: Angola, Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the European Union, Indonesia, Jordan, Lebanon, Liechtenstein, Malaysia, the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Moldova, Switzerland, Ukraine, the UAE, the UK, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, and Vanuatu.

No NDC includes a timeline for the phase out of fossil fuel subsidies.

While they do not provide a quantified goal or timeline for phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, six countries either mention the intention to provide this or are members of a coalition committed to implementing national strategies for exiting these subsidies : Australia, Canada, the European Union, the Marshall Islands, the UK, and Vanuatu.

The Marshall Islands and Vanuatu include the strongest language on fossil fuel subsidy exit, with both SIDS stating that they are committed to phasing out all fossil fuel subsidies “as soon as possible”.

15 countries do not have inefficient fossil fuel subsidies: Bhutan, Central African Republic, Comoros, Eritrea, Holy See, Iceland, Monaco, Nauru, Palau, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Somalia, and Tuvalu.

80% (110/137) of new NDCs – and of EMDEs, 91% – submitted to date are conditional (or partly conditional) on international finance, technical assistance, or some other form of support.

Zimbabwe and the small island developing states of Barbados and Niue submitt a conditional NDC that has lowered ambition on an energy goal, signalling that the necessary finance to support energy their energy commitments is not flowing.

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