Indian nutmeg FOB prices in New Delhi hold steady amid weak exports, stable Cochin spot rates and erratic Kerala monsoon. Short‑term outlook is sideways to mildly soft.
New Delhi FOB indications in EUR (converted from INR and cross‑checked with trade reports) currently show:
Indicative domestic spot prices at Cochin on 1 September 2026 were around INR 320/kg with shell and INR 595/kg without shell (≈3.75 and 6.95 EUR/kg at ~INR 85/EUR), broadly aligned with New Delhi FOB for conventional whole nutmeg.
Recent trade commentary highlights a soft to range‑bound tone, with conventional whole nutmeg around 6.9 EUR/kg FOB New Delhi and only limited buying at higher offers.
On the supply side, India remains a key producer, with Kerala as the main nutmeg belt. Official spot boards point to adequate arrivals and no significant disruption to marketable volumes so far this season.
However, India’s nutmeg and mace exports fell sharply in April–June 2026, down about 35% year‑on‑year to roughly 704 tonnes, indicating weaker offshore demand from major buyers. At the same time, EU data confirm the bloc continues to run a sizeable trade deficit in whole nutmeg, underscoring its structural import dependence but not yet translating into stronger short‑term pull for Indian origin.
Shipment records for HS 09081110 suggest active but not booming Indian exports through late August 2026, again consistent with a subdued but functioning export pipeline. US import tracking for mid‑2026 shows diversified sourcing, limiting any single‑origin pricing power. Overall, this keeps the near‑term balance comfortably supplied.
India’s 2026 southwest monsoon has so far run below long‑term average nationally, partly linked to El Niño conditions, with early‑season deficits only partly recovered by late July. Despite the overall shortfall, Kerala has experienced episodes of intense rainfall, flooding and landslides this season, heightening local crop and soil‑erosion risks in spice districts.
Recent policy discussions between the Kerala government and the Spices Board have focused on climate‑resilient spice cultivation and support for farmers in Idukki and other key spice areas, underlining official concern over weather‑related stress on plantations including nutmeg. For the coming 3–7 days, monsoon activity over Kerala typically remains active but gradually eases in intensity through September; existing moisture levels are sufficient to sustain trees, so short‑term supply for the 2026/27 marketing window should remain adequate, though localized quality issues cannot be ruled out.
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