Tropical Cyclone Arnab is expected to hit India’s east coast on Wednesday, marking a break in an otherwise calm season that’s been subdued by a severe El Niño.
Arnab is currently 859 kilometers (534 miles) southwest of Kolkata, packing top sustained winds of 213 kilometers per hour, according to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center, equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane. The cyclone is forecast to intensify further before making landfall, though models are currently split on whether it will stall before or after crossing the coast, the center said.
El Niño has upended typical cyclone seasons around the world this year. The Atlantic Ocean is set for one of its lowest hurricane counts since 1941 , while the Northwest Pacific Ocean is on track for one of its most intense typhoon seasons on record. Meanwhile, the North Indian Ocean has seen significantly below-average activity in recent months, with Arnab the first cyclonic storm.
“One of the key climatic events has been the suppression of the Indian monsoon and with it, the much reduced tropical cyclone activity, driven by the long reach of the El Niño,” said Christian Werner , managing director of Global Weather Climate Analytics.
Arnab is expected to bring moderate to intense rainfall across parts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, and could cause widespread damage to standing crops and plantations including banana, papaya, and drumstick trees, according to the India Meteorological Department. Deluges over Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka are also possible, forecasts show.
The North Indian Ocean sees storm activity peak during two distinct periods of the year: before the monsoon, from April to June, and after the monsoon, from October to December.
Photograph: People carry umbrellas along the coast ahead of cyclone Arnab’s expected landfall in Kakinada, on Oct. 27, 2026; photo credit: Noah Seelam/AFP/Getty Images
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